![]() ![]() And then we have desired futures, futures that we want to happen. Then we have probable futures, and that's likely to happen and then maybe the time horizon is not far into the future. ![]() There is a logical link to that this may happen that we can understand. Then we have plausible futures that could happen. Anything could happen, we don't know so much or actually nothing about the future, though there's a number of guesses. In the future, kind of anything is possible. ![]() What different futures do we have then? Well, we have possible futures. So there are a number of questions that we will never ask ourselves because we don't know that they need to be asked. We have the historical data and we also know that the future is, there are some questions to ask, but the main issue is that the things we do not know that we do not know. It's about getting an idea what plausible futures might look like, but we have a number of issues here. How good is this then? Well, I said foresight is not prediction. And that's then the deduction part of this process. Once we have the model of theory, we use that to make some prediction of what may happen in the future. When we build a model or a theory, we use historical data and with using induction, we produce this model or theory. But the desire to predict the future has been there for thousands of years, as well as the fortune tellers. These types of method had been used since the 1970s and since the successful development implementation of the company Shell. And also the reason is that we do not have all the information about the future, so we need to have some help to make these guesses. And of course, if it was, I mean, there would be no point of taking action today because it would not have any effect at all on the future. Why do we do scenario planning and foresighting? Well, that's due to that the future is not predetermined or predictable. We use these models to take better decisions and to prepare ourselves for what may happen. But there are a number of methods to build models of what the future might look like. But as we discussed before, we only have data about the past but not about the future. When you have completed this module, you will be able to use one particular method to build the model of the future, your map of the future landscape. What if we could predict the future, wouldn't that be great? But sorry, we can't, but we can make some quite qualified guesses and that's what this module would cover. In this way, you will get a toolbox for decision-making in the areas of technology, investments, career path, research & development, or portfolio management. However, the methods presented in this course will help you identify potential consequences. We all know that the future can’t be fully predicted in detail. The largest assignment is about the introduction of self-driving cars (hence the course icon source and credit to Google). ![]() The course includes a number of assignments to facilitate your learning – some of them compulsory. In addition, you will identify barriers to such a development and make estimates regarding the timing. You will analyze how an industry or market may change if the technology which is available today is fully implemented in a 10 to 20-year perspective. Finally, we find a path from where we are today to a desired end state. After that, you get to identify interesting future business roles in emerging value networks. First, you to learn how to draw a map of the potential future business landscape. The curriculum includes general innovation theories, foresight methodology, value chain disruption, and strategy. You will study historical examples and learn to recognize recurring patterns and cycles. The Impact of Technology course takes a broad approach, including social and economic factors. This will prepare you for the changes that we are facing in society, and also help you take advantage of transformations that are driven by technology. In this course, you will learn how to use theories and methods to make predictions of the potential impact of new technology – in general, as well as for a specific application. ![]()
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